Bhubaneswar: The deep depression formed over the west central Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and cross the Odisha coast south of Gopalpur in the morning of October 11, the Centre for Climate and Environment (CEC) of the SOA (Deemed to be University) said on Tuesday.
Most of the models were supporting the likelihood of the deep depression, located 560 km south-east of Gopalpur, intensifying into a cyclonic storm by Tuesday night, Dr. Sarat Chandra Sahu, Director of CEC, said.
It was likely to initially move in a north-northwestwardly direction towards the Odisha coast and then move in a northeasterly direction along the coast towards West Bengal after entering mainland, he said.
Under its influence, extremely heavy rainfall is likely in one or two locations in the districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Balasore and Mayurbhanj. But heavy to very heavy rainfall could be experienced in the districts of Rayagada, Kandhamal, Nayagarh, Khurda, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Cuttack and Keonjhar districts between Wednesday and Saturday.
The wind speed may increase up to 80 to 100 km per hour at the time of the cyclone crossing the coast in Ganjam and Puri districts but models indicate weakening of the system causing the wind speed to hover between 45 to 55 km per hour.
The probability of the deep depression intensifying into a cyclonic storm was high due to upper air trough over north India while the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal provided cold air in higher altitude causing pressure to fall rapidly. However, the cloud mass was not properly organized as in case of earlier cyclones and the convection area was spreading in a large area in the Bay of Bengal, Dr. Sahu said.